Thursday, March 09, 2006

Getting setup for failure:

If there is a bright spot to Democrats maybe winning the governorship in November, it’s that the incoming governor is going to have a hard act to follow.

As governor one of the biggest things you will be judged on is how many people are out of a job and their sense of net worth. If the economy slows and unemployment is high, like the President on the national level, you’re going to get the blame.

Yesterday the New York State Department of Labor released its latest data on the state of our job market. It reported that as of the end of the year, New York averaged an unemployment rate of 5% for 2005. This was an improvement from 5.8% in 2004 and is at a rate that economists consider full employment.

What these current numbers mean is that with the economy running at GDP rates of over 4% and interest rates nearing 5%, a slowdown is looking more and more likely. For the new governor it means being in the uncomfortable position of taking over at the top. It will be interesting to see how Spitzer or anyone will handle the likelihood of home prices coming down and the unemployment rate increasing as they are being sworn in. Even more interesting will be to see how much fun the loosing party will have blaming them for it.

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