Tuesday, January 17, 2006

This war in Iraq doesn’t look like a bad idea after all:

When it comes to foreign policy decisions by any government I tend to be a realist. Most of this stems from my sick infatuation with history, mostly military, where I have come to appreciate the chess moves made by every nation since the invention of the spear. For instance President McKinley annexed Hawaii in 1898 because of the behind the door urging of Admiral Alfred Mahan. Admiral Mahan told President McKinley he believed it necessary to annex Hawaii before the Japanese did, which would create a launching point for an invasion on the United States. At the time Americans and Europeans went crazy calling us imperialist hypocrites. At least we were right hypocrites as World War II would have not been pretty had Japan held Hawaii instead of us. Another one is President James Polk’s decision to start a war with Mexico to obtain California. Polk was an expansionist who saw the value in controlling the whole west coast. It is said he had his people come up with a case for war (sound familiar). The war happened, we won, controlled California turning it into the Liberal hot bed of America. How ironic that the liberals who attack the current administration for misleading the public on the war got their home state through the same methods. Besides getting Hollywood Polk’s decision to control the west coast was brilliant as it assured an invasion against us from the west would have to come by sea and it allowed us to control deep water ports on both sides of the country.

So where am I going with this? To today’s war in Iraq. Since the first days of the war all we have heard is “it’s all about the oil”. Well being the realist I’m going to say there probably right in a sense that it is one of the reason and with today’s events in Iran and Nigeria I’ll say it was a great foreign policy decision right up there with Hawaii and California. The truth is between America and Europe we consume over half the worlds oil. This oil is the blood of every economy in the world allowing everything to move. Unfortunately it’s also controlled by some of the most hostile nations in the world who are unstable politically.

Today the price of oil is moving again as Nigerian oil facilities have come under attack from militia and possible UN sanctions against Iran bring up the idea of a possible oil embargo. Between Nigeria and Iran they have enough oil combined to make them the fourth largest producers. If their oil were to come offline for any reason the effect on the world would be crippling, hence the reason oil traders are currently pricing in additional risk premium.

Is it possible by invading Iraq and installing a friendly democratic government the world has the benefit of increasing its supply of oil so it may act as a cushion if Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela or even Saudi Arabia goes offline? When you have a resource that is important to running the world, making sure it’s in the right hands is not a bad move in the world of foreign policy. Hell if you ever played Sid Meier’s Civilization you would know what I mean. It’s easy for liberals to call America imperialists until one day when Iran and other countries go off line and they’re standing there unable to heat their home. It’s like wondering where would Hollywood be if President Polk hadn’t given them that sunny coast to base their operations.

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