Thursday, April 06, 2006

Is Rudy Giuliani the cause of our Republican woes?

In keeping with the sky is falling on the Republican Party debate, I continue to reflect on just where our fortunes turned for the worse in New York. On the surface it’s easy to say it was when Senator D’Amato lost to Schumer. Schumer’s presence in New York has been monumental and the Democrats in this state owe a lot to him. We could say case closed but in the spirit of Steven Levitt, author of “Freakonomics”, which goes by his proven theory that what may appear as the cause of the effect is usually not so I decided to keep searching.

So I did and came up with a different turning point for the Republican Party in New York and it’s called Rudy Giuliani. One looking at the current problems in the party has to ask themselves what would have been had Rudy Giuliani not bailed out in the last minute against Hillary Clinton for U.S. Senate. With Rudy’s popularity it’s hard to believe that Hillary would have won. Lazio, though a good man, never really had a chance with his late start in the race giving Hillary and Democrats the momentum they needed in New York.

If we sit back, close our eyes and envision New York with Senator Giuliani, things today could be dramatically different. He would be an amazing counter to Schumer in big races like Governor and would be a constant reminder to the people of the state that Republicans are a great party. Though still around, he is to far in the backdrop to have any material effect for the Republican cause today.

What’s worse is that the Rudy effect might still have ramification for years to come. We could easily suspect that if Hillary lost to Rudy, she would have had her political dreams delayed for years if not indefinitely. That didn’t happen and now she is the talk as the Democrat Presidential nominee for 2008. If she is the nominee and wins giving Democrats control of the White House, I think we will be forced to look back on what could have been had Rudy stayed in.

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